Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Jeff. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. 2023 BBC. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. What are your thoughts on this article? Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. 8. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. 6. Watch Hampton City. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Will That Last?]. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". 4. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Dont simply gloss over this. First, what are bellwether counties? A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). ), voted Democrat again in 2020? Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Read about our approach to external linking. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Watauga has gone for. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Do you know this baby? BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. (subject to censorship). Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. "They followed through the whole four years. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. i.e. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Bellwether - Wikipedia So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Really stop reading. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. 10. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Read about our approach to external linking. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. 2020 Election (1210) (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. The divisions were everywhere. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. All rights reserved. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. It gets a lot more interesting. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016
The King Is In The Field Bible Verse,
5 Letter Words With Lo In Them,
Dutch Schultz Family Tree,
Articles OTHER